Worldwide prevalence of dementia set to double every 20 years

EMBARGO: 00.01 GMT FRIDAY 16 DECEMBER 2005
To: News/Health Editors

A new case of dementia arises every seven seconds, with the number of people with dementia set to double every 20 years, a report from the Lancet reveals today.

The report comes nearly 100 years after the first identification of Alzheimer’s disease, and estimates that 24.3 million people currently have dementia worldwide. In Scotland 63,000 people have dementia, and this is expected to rise to 137,059 by 2040.

Whilst the rate of increase in developing countries is expected to be faster than developed countries the rise in developed countries remains significant. In Western Europe 4.8 million people are living with dementia (the second highest incidence in the groups studied) but by 2040 this number will have reached 9.9 million.

These alarming new figures are a call to action for governments all over the world.

Jim Jackson Chief Executive of Alzheimer Scotland says, “It is imperative that government, clinicians and policy makers understand these statistics and make provision for sufficient dementia care accordingly. Policies need to be well formulated and planned with these projections in mind, the inevitable shift in resource expenditure towards older people can be predicted and consequences mitigated.”

He continues, “In 2006 we will be marking the 100th anniversary of Alois Alzheimer’s identification of Alzheimer’s disease. Scotland has come a long way in the last 10 years, but there is still a long way to go in increasing awareness of dementia, providing adequate services for people with the illness and planning for the future.”

Alzheimer Scotland is calling on NHS Boards and local authorities to demonstrate that they have sufficient good quality services from diagnosis and treatment through to palliative care.

Please give our Freephone 24hr Dementia Helpline telephone number: 0808 808 3000 and our website address: www.alzscot.org at the end of articles.

Contact details:
Sarah Bromley, PR & Marketing Manager, tel 0131 243 1453, mob 07966 458 869, sbromley@alzscot.org
Jim Jackson, Chief Executive, tel 0131 243 1453, mob 07747 025 041, jjackson@alzscot.org

Notes for the Editor:

Twelve experts, led by Dr Cleusa Ferri and Prof Martin Prince, reviewed epidemiological studies from all world regions. The experts reached agreement, based on the evidence, on the proportion of the older population likely to be affected by dementia in each region. These proportions were then applied to UN population estimates to arrive at the total numbers of people with dementia.

Researchers used UN population estimates to produce prevalence figures for both men and women in five age bands from 60 to 84, and for those aged 85 and over.
The research includes all types of dementia –it does not break down prevalence for Alzheimer’s disease, vascular dementia and so on.

The countries and areas with the largest number of people with dementia are

• China: 5 million
• The European Union: 5 million
• USA: 2.9 million
• India: 1.5 million
• Japan: 1.1 million
• Russia: 1.1 million
• Indonesia: 1 million

It is estimated that there are currently 24.3 million people with dementia in the world, with 4.6 million new cases of dementia annually (the equivalent of a new case every seven seconds).

The number of people affected is set to double every 20 years with 42.3 million living with dementia in 2020 and 81.1 million living with dementia by 2040.

The majority of people with dementia live in the developing world: 60% in 2001 rising to 71% by 2040. The rate of increase in numbers of people with dementia is predicted to be three to four times higher in developing than in developed regions.
Increases are not uniform: in developed countries, numbers are set to increase by 100% between 2001 and 2040 whereas in China and India, the number of people with dementia will triple.

Dementia affects approximately 63,000 people in Scotland.

Alzheimer’s disease is the main form of dementia. The second most common is vascular dementia. As yet there is no cure.

Alzheimer Scotland is Scotland’s foremost voluntary organisation working for people with dementia and their carers. It:

• speaks out for the rights and concerns of people with dementia and their carers;
• operates services on over 60 sites throughout Scotland providing practical services such as day, evening and weekend centres, home care and befriending and carers' support services;
• provides the 24 hour national freephone Dementia Helpline (0808 808 3000);
• provides the website www.alzscot.org;
• supports a network of over 40 carers' support groups;
• provides information to carers, professionals and people with dementia;
• publishes leaflets, booklets, reports and a quarterly newsletter keeping carers and professionals up-to-date
• has a research programme.