Statistics: Number of people with dementia in Scotland

We estimate that between 58,000 and 65,000 people have dementia in Scotland this year. Between around 1350 and 1600 of these people are under the age of 65. The numbers of people with dementia in Scotland are expected to rise by
75% to between 102,000 and 114,000 by 2031.

For the 30-89 age groups we used population projections for 2007 (2004 based) from the General Register Office for Scotland. For the 90+ age group we used population projections for 2007 (2004 based) from the Government Actuary’s Department.

We applied two sets of prevalence rates to the population projections. The first are from the Eurodem study for ages 65+ and from a study conducted by Harvey for the under 65 age group. The second set of prevalence rates are from the Alzheimer Society’s Dementia UK report , published earlier this year, which provide more up-to-date estimates than the Eurodem rates.

The Dementia UK rates produce conservative estimates; therefore, we have done calculations with both sets of prevalence rates. The true number of people with dementia will be in-between this range.

Table 1: Table showing the prevalence rates of dementia (%) given by the Eurodem (1) and Dementia UK studies.
Age group	Eurodem	Eurodem	Dementia UK	Dementia UK
	Female	Male	Female	Male
30-34	0.0672	0.0672	0.0095	0.0089
35-39	0.0672	0.0672	0.0093	0.0063
40-44	0.0672	0.0672	0.0196	0.0081
45-49	0.0672	0.0672	0.0273	0.0318
50-54	0.0672	0.0672	0.0551	0.0627
55-59	0.0672	0.0672	0.0971	0.1795
60-64	0.0672	0.0672	0.118	0.1989
65-69	1.1	2.2	1	1.5
70-74	3.9	4.6	2.4	3.1
75-79	6.7	5	6.5	5.1
80-84	13.5	12.1	13.3	10.2
85-89	22.8	18.5	22.2	16.7
90-94	32.2	32.1	29.6	27.5
95-99	36	31.6	34.4	30
100+	36	31.6	34.4	30

Table 2: Estimated number of people with dementia in Scotland in 2007 by local authority
Local authority	Number of people with dementia (Eurodem prevalence rates)			Number of people with dementia (Dementia UK prevalence rates)
	Under 65	Over 65	Total	Under 65	Over 65	Total
Aberdeen City	62	2486	2548	50	2227	2277
Aberdeenshire	81	2816	2897	70	2508	2578
Angus	36	1554	1590	32	1387	1419
Argyll & Bute	30	1321	1351	27	1176	1203
Clackmannanshire	16	578	595	14	516	529
Dumfries & Galloway	48	2262	2311	45	2012	2058
Dundee City	40	1927	1967	34	1727	1761
East Ayrshire	39	1487	1526	33	1323	1356
East Dunbartonshire	34	1391	1425	30	1240	1270
East Lothian	31	1262	1292	25	1129	1154
East Renfrewshire	29	1179	1208	24	1056	1080
Edinburgh, City of	143	5504	5647	106	4953	5059
Eilean Siar	9	399	408	8	357	365
Falkirk	49	1770	1819	40	1577	1617
Fife	115	4593	4708	98	4102	4200
Glasgow City	176	6374	6550	126	5708	5834
Highland	72	2833	2905	65	2525	2590
Inverclyde	26	1028	1054	22	918	940
Midlothian	26	940	966	22	836	858
Moray	29	1151	1179	24	1023	1048
North Ayrshire	43	1745	1788	38	1553	1591
North Lanarkshire	104	3458	3562	83	3068	3150
Orkney Islands	7	267	273	6	238	244
Perth & Kinross	46	2056	2102	41	1839	1880
Renfrewshire	55	1998	2053	45	1778	1823
Scottish Borders	37	1615	1652	33	1441	1474
Shetland Islands	7	264	272	6	237	243
South Ayrshire	36	1684	1719	33	1502	1534
South Lanarkshire	101	3723	3823	82	3319	3401
Stirling	27	1084	1111	24	967	990
West Dunbartonshire	29	1086	1115	24	971	995
West Lothian	56	1559	1615	43	1380	1423
Total	1639	63,393	65,031	1355	56,592	57,946

Table 3: Estimated number of people with dementia in Scotland in 2007 by NHS Board
NHS Board	Number of people with dementia (Eurodem prevalence rates)			Number of people with dementia (Dementia UK prevalence rates)
	Under 65	Over 65	Total	Under 65	Over 65	Total
Argyll and Clyde	134	5143	5277	114	4579	4693
Ayrshire & Arran	118	4916	5034	104	4378	4482
Borders	37	1615	1652	33	1441	1474
Dumfries & Galloway	48	2262	2311	45	2012	2058
Fife	115	4592	4707	98	4102	4200
Forth Valley	93	3427	3519	77	3055	3131
Grampian	172	6452	6624	144	5758	5902
Greater Glasgow	267	10117	10385	204	9058	9262
Highland	72	2833	2905	65	2525	2590
Lanarkshire	181	6307	6487	145	5605	5750
Lothian	256	9265	9521	197	8298	8495
Orkney	7	267	273	6	238	244
Shetland	7	264	272	6	237	243
Tayside	121	5533	5655	108	4949	5056
Western Isles	9	399	408	8	357	365

Table 4: Estimated number of people with dementia in Scotland 2007-2031
Year	Dementia UK prevalence rates)	% increase
2007	57,946	-
2012	63,718	10%
2017	71,509	12%
2022	81,196	13.50%
2027	92,520	14%
2031	101,650	10%

For more information and breakdowns of the number of people with dementia by 5 year age group, please contact Lindsay Kinnaird lkinnaird@alzscot.org(tel: 0131 243 1453).

(1) Hofman A, Rocca, W A, Brayne C, Breteler M M B, Clarke M, Cooper B, et al (1991) The prevalence of dementia in Europe: a collaborative study of 1980-1990 findings International Journal of Epidemiology, 20, 3, 736-48.

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